Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the political fallout of the Trump verdict (2024)

Geoff Bennett:

For analysis of the political fallout to the Trump verdict and more, we're joined by our Politics Monday duo. That's Tamara Keith of NPR and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.

Great to see you both, as always.

So we have just seen the Republican strategy for dealing with Donald Trump's guilty conviction, discredit the process, discredit the outcome. But, Tam, there seems to be something of a tactical disagreement among Democrats over just how much to lean in and how much to use this as a political cudgel. Take us inside the thinking among the party.

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Yes.

So I have spoken to people on the Biden campaign, and they are in the camp of don't lean in too far, as in this is not their whole campaign. Donald Trump, convicted felon, is not going to solve all of their problems. They still need to run a campaign.

And the way they see it is, this is one of the — one of the proof points in the case that they intend to make why Biden should be elected and Trump should not be elected. But they don't see it as the key to their case. And I think, based on very early polling and everything else, there's a reason it shouldn't be the key to their case.

And they know that they have a lot of work. This is going to be a very close campaign. And it turns out that having a conviction is not a game changer.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, here's how at least one Democrat, Congressman Adam Schiff, who served as an impeachment manager, a House impeachment manager, here's how he sees the potential impact of all this.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Senatorial Candidate: This is another dangerous appeal to violence. And it is yet another reason why Americans are going to decide they don't want a convicted felon in the Oval Office. They don't want someone that has so little respect for the system of justice or our criminal laws that they're a convicted felon and then attack the system as a result.

Geoff Bennett:

So with the caveat that it's still early days, how do you see this conviction shaking the dynamic, if at all, of the 2024 race?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes.

So I'm with Tam that the polls aren't really telling us all that much right now, in part because they were taken immediately afterward. And I think that folks still hadn't really processed that yet, but also because the election isn't in May. It's in November.

And I think if you look at who the undecided voters are in this election, many of them are people who dislike both of these candidates equally. And they are going to make their choice about whether to vote at all or which candidate to vote for probably as we get into September and October.

And where the focus, where the spotlight is in September and October is going to matter a lot more. We also have some other cases that have yet to be delivered. Obviously, the Supreme Court's decision on whether President Trump can claim presidential immunity, I think that has — that could have an impact as well.

That's any day now we could see that case coming down. Fundamentally, though, what Democrats do believe is that the focus less on maybe the case and the convicted felon piece, more on this idea that Trump is going to come back looking for a retribution, looking to foment violence, connecting it to a lot of the things that were helpful to Democrats in 2022, especially when they talked about January 6 and people who election deniers or who said that, if the elections don't go the way we want, we're going to overturn them.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Tam, the level of support for Donald Trump is so intense among Republicans right now that Larry Hogan, the former Maryland governor who is running now for Maryland's open Senate seat, said that the American people should respect the verdict, and that was enough for fellow Republicans to jump all over him, including Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law who is the co-chair of the RNC.

Here's what she had to say when asked about it.

Lara Trump, Co-Chair, Republican National Committee:

We, of course, want to win as a party, but that is a shame, and I think he should have thought long and hard before he said that publicly.

He doesn't deserve the respect of anyone in the Republican Party at this point, and, quite frankly, anybody in America.

Geoff Bennett:

The co-chair of the RNC saying that Larry Hogan, one of their candidates, doesn't deserve the respect of anybody in this country?

Tamara Keith:

One of their prime recruits, their best hope to win in a blue state, and now the chairman of the president's campaign, the former president's campaign, is saying that his campaign has ended because he said, respect the process, because it turns out saying respect the process is the same as betraying Trump, because they — the Republicans very quickly, and basically before the — before the verdict even came in, settled on the narrative.

And the narrative is that the process wasn't fair, that this was a political railroading. And because they settled on the process isn't fair, if someone comes out and says, oh, respect the process, well, then you're saying that maybe Trump deserved to be convicted.

Amy Walter:

I'd argue that that might be an in-kind contribution, actually, to the Larry Hogan campaign. If I were him, I would run that ad.

Tamara Keith:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

He's running in Maryland, a state that Trump lost by more than 30 points.

And he has been very outspoken in his time as governor as sort of a voice against Donald Trump. But this is the kind of messaging that actually helps him, though it also goes — to Tam's point, as anybody else running in any state, whether it's purple or red, you have got to stick with Trump or suffer the consequences.

Tamara Keith:

Yes, that's the signal, is you have got to stay in line.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, while we're talking about Senate races, Amy, you wrote a piece for Cook Political Report where, I got to say, the headline tells it all: "Senate Democrats Are Running Strong."

Why Senate Democrats are running strong, even as Biden is struggling. We know the 2024 Senate map favors Republicans. Why are Democrats outperforming the president?

Amy Walter:

Yes, they are doing better, not just in their overall approval ratings, which looks stronger than Biden's, but they're leading their Republican opponents.

Now, some of that's just name identification, because these are incumbents and nobody knows the challenger, Republican challengers as well. But some of it, too, is that they are actually getting a lot of those Democratic voters that Biden has yet to really solidify behind him.

But, also, they aren't getting dragged down by frustrations about the economy in the same way Biden is. And when I talked to a Republican strategist about this, his point was, that's right. So just making the case, as many Republicans would like to do that, hey, Senate Democrat X, you should fire them because they're part of the Biden economy. That right now is not sticking.

It may as we move forward. But what the argument of this strategist was, you have got to make a case for yourself still about how Republicans are going to make the economy better. So they have been able to get some distance from Biden on the economy.

Republicans have not been able to get distance from Donald Trump with swing voters on some of the — of his liabilities, especially on issues like abortion.

Geoff Bennett:

Meantime, Tam, we have some late-breaking news, in that Senate Democrat Bob Menendez, who is facing — he's under indictment for corruption. He filed paperwork to run in New Jersey for the U.S. Senate as an independent.

Tell us more about that and the potential impact.

Tamara Keith:

Well, he wasn't going to win a Democratic primary. So there's that.

Being a declared candidate allows you to continue fund-raising for your campaign and your campaign fund-raising could potentially help some of your other problems. That said, he doesn't appear to have a lot of staff. And the bigger challenge for Senate Democrats right now is that he's in a courtroom and he's not in the Senate taking votes.

And their numbers are so narrow that that actually does create some challenges for them.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, the local paper the New Jersey, Globe, reported that Menendez is managing his own race and has no campaign staff, which suggests he's doing this based on name I.D. alone.

Amy Walter:

Yes. That's right.

He's doing it on name I.D. alone and also to just keep being able to fund-raise while he is on trial.

Geoff Bennett:

What does it mean for our politics, though?

Amy Walter:

Right.

Well and what do people hear when they see that we have a member of the United States Senate who's in court, by the way, for a second time, on charges related to this bribery issue?

I think, for so many — and this is — I'm hoping this isn't the case, but I think a lot of people have this belief that the system itself is so corrupt, this is how most politicians act, it's just a matter of time, and that they — there was a time when the Department of Justice or the FBI looked at a member of Congress and said, we are thinking — we put you under the microscope, that the American public would say, we're going to stick with those in the establishment.

We're going to believe them. Instead, now, even the establishment, the institutions are not trusted.

Geoff Bennett:

Amy Walter and Tamara Keith, thanks, as always.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.